Commodity Deep Dives
Strategic profiles of the commodities that move global trade — production and reserves, transport routes and chokepoints, storage, price history, and the risks that decide delivered supply.
· 2026
Potash Is the Potassium Backbone of Global Agriculture — and Its Supply Is Concentrated in a Handful of Countries
Potash (potassium chloride/MOP) deep dive — Canada, Russia, China, and Belarus at 76% of mine output, the rail-and-port chokepoints, storage, price history, and why potassium is agriculture's irreplaceable nutrient.
· 2026
Sorghum Is the Drought-Tolerant Grain Linking Food Security to U.S.–China Feed Trade
Sorghum deep dive — the U.S. supplies 50.6% of world exports and China takes 77.6% of imports, Kansas and Texas hold 82% of the U.S. crop, and one month of Plains drought cut USDA's forecast 22%.
· 2026
Fertilizer Converts Energy and Mined Minerals Into Crop Yield — and Its Supply Chain Has Become a Strategic Chokepoint
Fertilizer deep dive — 216M t of nutrients produced against 197M t used, nitrogen tied to natural gas, Hormuz choking a third of urea trade, and why N, P, and K are irreplaceable in plant nutrition.
· 2026
Soybeans Are the Protein-and-Oil Crop Connecting Brazil, China, U.S. Rivers, Animal Feed, and Biofuels
Soybean deep dive — Brazil at 42% of production and 62% of exports, China at 60% of imports, a record U.S. crop, Santos and the Mississippi as the chokepoints, and the meal-plus-oil economics behind it all.
· 2026
Fish Meal Is the High-Protein Feed Commodity Whose Global Supply Can Turn on One Peruvian Fishery
Fish meal deep dive — Peru's anchovy fishery supplies ~20% of a 5.1M t market, the 2026 season stopped at 25% of quota under a 120-day national emergency, China takes 78% of exports, and prices hit $2,105/mt.
· 2026
Cerium Is the High-Volume Rare Earth That Powers Catalysts, Glass Polishing, Emissions Control, and Chemical Manufacturing
Cerium deep dive — the high-volume light rare earth behind catalysts, glass polishing, and emissions control, with Chinese separation capacity as the systemic chokepoint.
· 2026
Dysprosium Is the Heat-Resistance Rare Earth That Keeps High-Performance Magnets Working Under Stress
Dysprosium deep dive — the heat-resistance additive high-performance magnets depend on, fed by Chinese and Myanmar heavy-REE supply with separation capacity as the chokepoint.
· 2026
Neodymium Is the Magnet Rare Earth at the Center of Motors, Drones, Wind Turbines, and Defense Manufacturing
Neodymium deep dive — the magnet rare earth in motors, drones, wind turbines, and defense systems; China at 69% of mine output and MP Materials under a $110/kg U.S. price floor.
· 2026
Praseodymium Is Neodymium's Strategic Partner in Permanent Magnets — and a Critical Aerospace Alloying Element
Praseodymium deep dive — neodymium's partner in NdPr magnet alloys and an aerospace alloying element, with the same Chinese separation chokepoint.
· 2026
Samarium Is the High-Temperature Defense-Magnet Rare Earth With a Second Strategic Role in Nuclear Systems
Samarium deep dive — the high-temperature defense-magnet rare earth behind samarium-cobalt, with a second strategic role in nuclear systems.
· 2026
Scandium Is the Alloying Market Where a Few Dozen Tonnes Support an Aerospace and Defense Technology Class
Scandium deep dive — the tiny by-product market with outsized aerospace, defense, and additive-manufacturing potential, gated by recovery and refining capacity.
· 2026
Terbium Is the Ultra-Scarce Magnet Additive Whose Value Comes From Heat, Efficiency, and Supply Concentration
Terbium deep dive — the ultra-scarce magnet additive priced on heat performance and supply concentration, fed by Chinese and Myanmar heavy-REE feedstock.
· 2026
Yttrium Is the Heavy-Rare-Earth Workhorse Behind Ceramics, Lasers, Phosphors, and High-Temperature Materials
Yttrium deep dive — the heavy-rare-earth workhorse behind ceramics, lasers, phosphors, and thermal-barrier coatings, sourced mostly from southern Chinese ionic clays.
· 2026
Copper Is the Metal Every Grid, Motor, and Data Center Runs On — and Half the World Refines It in One Country
Copper deep dive — 23 Mt of mine supply against 29 Mt of refining capacity, Chile at 23% of output, China at 48% of smelting, treatment charges at zero, and a record $14,858/t after Grasberg and El Teniente.
· 2026
LNG Is the Fuel That Freed Gas From the Pipeline — and Every Cargo Sails Past a Chokepoint Someone Can Close
LNG deep dive — 436.98 Mt of seaborne trade in 2025, the United States at 110.74 Mt, Qatar under force majeure since March 2026, JKM at $27.51/MMBtu, and roughly 80 Mt a year routed through the Strait of Hormuz.
· 2026
Wheat Is the Grain That Feeds a Fifth of Humanity's Calories — and a Quarter of Its Exports Leave Through One 700-Metre Channel
Wheat deep dive — 822.4 Mt of world production against 211.7 Mt of trade, China at 140.1 Mt, Russia exporting 43.0 Mt through the Turkish Straits, and CBOT nearby wheat at $7.26 a bushel.
· 2026
Antimony Is the Flame Retardant and Ammunition Metal That One Country Refines — and Licenses on Its Own Terms
Antimony deep dive — 110,000 t of world mine supply with China, Russia, and Tajikistan at 85.5%, Chinese smelters holding above 85% of refining capacity, dual-use export licensing, and metal at $51,800/t.
· 2026
Lithium Is the Battery Metal Mined on Four Continents — and China Holds 70% of the Refining Capacity
Lithium deep dive — 290,000 t of 2025 mine supply after a 31% jump in one year, Australia at 92,000 t, roughly 70% of refining in China, and carbonate at $19,750/t after a 170% rally off the 2025 trough.